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疫情过后，政信信托是否还值得投资
时间：2020-03-16

受此次疫情影响最大的是中小型制造企业与服务企业；疫情发生后，可以预见的是国家将实施稳健偏宽松的货币政策与更加积极的财政政策；疫情过后预计将加大对人口流入地区都市圈城市群的基础设施建设，加大对交运、教育、医疗等行业的投资。这些均不涉及城投公司政策预期的改变，反而是一定程度的利好。

疫情的发生对城投公司不可避免会有一定影响。随着疫情的爆发和蔓延，近期将到期的部分政信信托可能会受到一定影响，存在无法及时兑付的风险。一是目前到期业务可能无法及时兑付。疫情期间，各级政府部门全力抗击疫情，企业延期复工、弹性工作。若此时信托公司基础产业项目到期，可能会受到工作效率影响，产生一定的时滞，影响按期兑付。二是后续到期业务可能没有能力兑付。据财政部消息，截至2月8日下午6点，按照“县级为主、省级兜底”的原则，各级财政共安排疫情防控资金718.5亿元，实际支出315.5亿元。地方财政需要保障的相关经费支出，对于疫情较重的区域财政产生较大的压力。同时，中央财政后期将根据疫情防控需要，继续出台和完善有关财税支持政策，也会影响地方财政的后续收入。三是疫情较重的地区社会经济秩序受到严重影响，可能也会导致其收入下降，影响区域还款能力。借鉴当年的“非典”疫情，本次疫情对房地产销售与投资均带来严重的不利冲击，将极大影响地方政府的基金性收入。

那么在市场惨淡、经济下行又适逢疫情爆发的环境中，政信信托是否还值得投资者持续青睐呢？

进元财富认为,投资政信项目是当今金融市场前景不明朗情况下较为合理的选择。这是因为,一般而言政信项目投资的都是政府投入较大的项目,比如基建项目和民生项目。

据媒体报道,2018年四季度千亿基建项目获批,基建投资补短板加码。根据2018年中央经济工作会议确定内容,2019年要抓好的重点工作任务就包括加强保障和改善民生。2019年更是放宽了地方债务限制，加速地方政府公开债务发行。而2020年初央行释放8亿流动性，预计政府部门将增加基建投资力度对冲经济下行风险，领域仍将集中在补短板的公路、铁路、城建、物流、生态环保、社会民生，以及5G等。这可能给信托公司参与新型基础设施建设提供一定的机遇。

在国内经济缺乏动力的情况下，基础设施建设仍然是经济发展不可或缺的动力之一，所以政信项目符合国家大政方针要求,发展前景良好,同时还款有保障,值得投资人投资。


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