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政信产品挑选时的种种疑虑
时间:2019-12-16

现如今的信托产品市场中,随着国家对地产商融资渠道的严监管和高门槛,地产类信托数量,在今年出现了断壁式减少。相反政信类信托受到较多投资者朋友关注,已代替地产成为信托产品中募集最多,产品类型最多样的一类。

之前文章中,已为大家简要总结过政信产品的基本分析点。本章笔者集中整理了一些朋友们关于政信类产品的疑问,围绕问题,梳理出作为从业者,客观出发评判政信产品优劣的观点。目前的政信项目主要集中在以下几个地区,江苏、山东、贵州、四川。很多投资者与笔者沟通时,往往存在疑问。

一、是经济不发达地区的政信就不能选了吗?

答:任何地区的政信类产品均有好有坏,我们拿贵州举例,到目前为止,的确存在延期的政信类信托产品,但仍有很多同地区的产品,为投资者如期兑付。所以,并不能说不发达地区的政信就完全不能选择,而是在面对经济较差省份的产品时,我们要更严格评选,慎重选择,多方面去和同时期其他地区产品比较,因为在地区因素上处于劣势,如果产品其他方面没有突出优质的增信或是结构亮点。那么遵循优中选优进行评判,适当要舍弃掉,当然能接受信托一定程度高风险去博取相对高收益的投资朋友,可以相反考量。目前信托产品坏账率不足2%,供大家选择项目时参考行业风险基准。

二、为什么我和大多理财经理不同,不主推江苏省政信?

答:我们抛去经济相对不发达的省份,目前来看,产品江苏省最多,对此,募集较多、债务规模近年较多的地区,难免导致未来几年偿债压力较大。江苏省内来看,基本上地区已经做烂了,分别是泰州的泰兴;扬州的仪征、广陵;镇江的扬中、丹徒、丹阳;淮安的清江浦;盐城亭湖、大丰、 建湖等。而山东方面,潍坊的寿光、诸城、青州;济宁的任城、邹城;枣庄的滕州等。

所以我们在做产品筛选时,对江苏省县级市或是市辖区级的产品不是特别认可,可能他们的上级地级市政府或是省级政府再融资能力强,债务压力能够承受。但像融资标的县级市或是市辖区财政收入较少,政府实力不够,就算所处大环境再好,如果项目本身内部无过多亮点(比如明确的资金投向而非流动、政府融资性平台亲自融资、实物住宅用地抵押等),产品也只能算是中规中矩的江苏政信。

况且此前也重点分析过,江苏省政信PPP类产品已经出现过延期现象,虽然承诺延迟兑付本息,但我相信这种情况依然是作为投资人不愿看到的。国开行解救镇江债务问题的新闻,被很多理财师拿来当亮点宣传,从目前市场上看,依然不断有产品资金流向镇江,美其名曰“国开行出面化解债务地区政信,风险极低”我想反问,化解债务后,继续大力举债,地方政府疯了吗?后续很多镇江项目,如果大家详细看过后,会发现伪证信很多,二三级国企借此融资缓解企业内压力,政府干预程度小,更多体现的是公司融资性质。这样我们就不难看出,销售的噱头很可怕,真正会看懂项目很重要!

当然“踩了一脚”江苏政信,并不意味着全盘否认,只是建议大家理性判断,不要把投资范围刻板停留在“江浙沪”一带。江苏、浙江、包括山东,像这种经济排名靠前的省份,很多城市本身不缺钱,融资手段也多,很容易拿到比信托融资成本更低的款项。所以城市水平方面,像苏州、南京、上海、宁波(宁波出过)、青岛、济南这种地区,很难发出政信类信托产品。所以在地区上来说,我们选择时,要优先判断的是,项目对应地区的经济现状如何,而非地区的大背景。

地级市的债务承受能力肯定是要强于县级市,只要经济总量不存在倒挂的情况,这是行业常识,因此,就地区而言,只要政府信用良好,江浙沪并非是政信产品挑选的第一选择,反而对应地区经济现状和债务情况是重要的衡量标准,当然经济好,债务少的江浙沪地区更好,优中选优,综合对比是核心思想。

三、江苏省经济现状好,政府信用良好,如果说风险很大,那为什么很多信托公司还都在做,难道都傻吗?多家都在做就意味着认可地区,没啥大问题吗?

这个问题,相信很多朋友都存在疑问,甚至有时会有理财师以此宣传一些政信的安全性高。其实导致江苏省产品泛滥的原因是各家信托公司的跟风准入,江苏省经济整体排名我国省级第二,省内部分地级市尤其下设县市对于信托融资的需求较大,前几年随着政策放开融资性平台代替政府出面融资,前期几家大信托公司对此区域重点展开了第一轮尽调与合作,当时的信托还能闭眼做。随着时间推移,很多小信托公司跟风进入,由此前的地级市,到现如今的市辖区和县级市,可以说无孔不入,由于行业中存在领头羊,如中信等,风控机制当时相对严谨且已成体系,所以很多其他信托公司基本看齐头排,导致跟风准入明显。现阶段的江苏作为政信信托的主战场,实质是债务越做越多,船大了难掉头。真正资金用于民生工程或是基础设施建设的越来越少,只不过现在的江苏某些地区依然在信托公司准入门槛水平内,但随着产品愈来愈多,未来的政信项目肯定会逐渐转化到其他地区,像浙江、郑州等相对经济排名靠前,但融资较少的地区,江苏也会随着额度饱和,产品数量与优质度双下降,当然不会完全消失,因为很多伪证信,会不断的借新还旧,滚动募集,这也是为什么纯流贷放款的政信存在一定隐性风险的原因。


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