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山东-下一个贵州?综合成本压降10%以内,监管要求尽快化解债务
城投债 时间:2023-05-11

       整改情况:(1)按照县政府制定的发展战略,进一步壮大企业资产规模,积极主动调整产业结构,增强市场竞争力和盈利能力。一是进一步做大公司物业板块,增强创收能力。二是加快房地产项目的实施。三是加快产融结合打造金融业务板块。(2)统筹用好银行信贷、融资担保、资本市场等多渠道资金,积极探索新的融资方式,改善融资结构,建立内控体系,将融资年综合成本控制在10%以内。(3)通过核对底数、逐项分析、综合研判,根据不同情况分别采取了土地置换、诉讼、签订还款和解协议等手段,多措并举追缴公司对外借款。(4)重投资、轻管理,对外投资收益较低问题。集团公司将严格按照“三重一大”制度,加强项目投资管理,强化可行性研究分析,从源头上做到有的放矢,防止国有资产流失,做到“既投又管”。


       2022年8月25日,国务院出台了《国务院关于支持山东深化新旧动能转换推动绿色低碳高质量发展的意见》(国发〔2022〕18号),成为2022年继支持贵州的国发2号文之后,又一个针对地方发展而出台的文件。文件主要是支持山东新旧动能转换,对于地方政府债务问题涉及较少。


       2022年10月底,财政部配套出台了《关于贯彻落实<国务院关于支持山东深化新旧动能转换推动绿色低碳高质量发展的意见>的实施意见》(财预〔2022〕137号),提出了要“加强政策引导、促进产业转型升级,加大指导力度、提升财政管理水平”等方向要求,针对债务问题更明确指出要“指导山东逐步降低高风险地区债务风险水平”。


       2023年2月14日,银保监出台《国务院关于支持山东深化新旧动能转换推动绿色低碳高质量发展的意见》(银保监办发[2023]11号),稳妥有序推进中小金融机构改革化险。积极配合化解地方政府债务风险。


       银保监发11号文对山东城投影响几何?


       山东省作为经济大省,经济总量每年排在全国第三位,但经济总量大的背后,其经济发展面临着新动能发展动力不足而旧动能发展乏力的问题。17年以来,山东省GDP增速与全国GDP增速的差回落至了偏低水平。而山东省自2020年以来债务风险持续上升,尤其2022年下半年,部分地区非标及商票逾期等负面舆情频发。


       此外,随着城投融资监管政策的收紧,山东部分地市频发负面事件,省内融资环境出现负反馈。山东省城投主体以区县级为主,区县级城投主体占比为60%,而随着区县级城投政策收紧,山东省城投债净融资缩量明显。2022年山东省城投债净融资由2021年的2562.1亿元降至1665.7亿元,同比下降35%。此外,山东省城投主体非标融资由2021年的231.2亿元降至-450.2亿元。非标融资也开始收缩,即使增加非标融资也会增加融资成本。叠加城投监管政策收紧,从而导致2022年成为山东省城投融资最为困难的一年。


       当前来看,山东省城投标债违约的概览依然非常低,但短期内依然存在个别弱质区域带来的负面扰动,但后续走遵义模式的概览较低。国务院、财政部、银保监会先后下发文件支持山东省经济新旧动能转换,对山东省金融和经济环境无疑是利好,但对山东城投的直接利好相对有限。对于负面舆情频发的高负债地区能否出台实质性化债措施,是影响山东省城投融资环境的重要因素。


       随着银保监会11号文的落地,在“积极配合”的政策要求下,金融机构的行为可能将成为核心关注点。当然,具体政策执行的力度和幅度,可能仍有相当不确定性,仍需观察政府和城投行为。


       从近期中央和地方的表态来看,对于债务问题的关注度相当高,强调化解债务风险,不发生系统性风险。


       近年来,随着实体经济增速放缓,金融业积累的风险开始暴露。全国来看,金融风险化解仍在持续,中央要求压实地方政府的属地风险处置责任和维稳第一责任。地方层面看,大型国有企业及房企陆续出现违约,隐性债务化解、高风险金融机构处置都考验着地方政府的应对能力。


       城投公司是时代的产物,诞生于百废待兴之中,兴盛于朝气蓬勃之时,涉及到国家意志和战略方向;城投公司目前面临一定的困境,债务压力和风险化解一直在推进中,没有停止过脚步。


       城投标债相比其它债务,更加稳健,“大而不倒、有政府背书”的城投信仰很难磨灭。现在,城投公司亟需重获新的身份、新的定位、新的历史使命。


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