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2022年至今取消发行规模超15500亿!
城投债 时间:2023-04-16

        据不完全统计,2022年至今境内市场有效采样数据显示其累计取消及推迟规模量合计为15,517.03亿元,其中2022年11-12月取消规模量攀至峰值,步入新年后现象逐渐缓解;


        而部分债券在取消及推迟后,受益于合适的融资环境再次尝试发行,并成功完成上市,该部分在统计期间发行总量约为2,000.13亿元(指同一取消券的后续再次发行),粗略计算下的实际取消/推迟发行累计总量是13,516.90亿元。


        统计期间,单月取消量基本维持【400,1000】亿元区间;波动集中在2022年3月和12月,分别出现一次小高峰和一次大规模的“取消潮”,单月取消及推迟总量分别高达1,703亿元和2,382.81亿元。


        2022年3月,城投和银行因央行降息降准等因素,发行成本超过预期,导致小规模取消发行集中出现。


        随后2022年11月,债市陷入大幅行情调整,无风险利率及信用债利差大幅上行,推升融资成本,同时理财产品受其影响,大面积回撤触发“赎回潮”,相应的信用债配置需求减弱,发行人开始主动取消发行以观望更好的发债窗口。


        2022年12月取消推迟合计总量高达2,382.81亿元;剔除后续成功发行部分,12月实际的取消及推迟规模仍高达2,225.93亿元。


        另外,从公司属性分布来看(不包括银行相关债券),2022年至今取消发行涉及主体主要集中在国有企业,累计取消发行4,890.33亿元,占比近两年整体取消发行的95.48%;外商企业和民营企业在统计期间累计取消发行处于低位,占比近两年整体取消发行的2.96%和1.56%。


        从行业分布来看,城投2022-2023年取消及推迟发行量分别是2,244.75亿元和738.63亿元,占比分别高达53.95%和76.88%;其次是电力行业,2022-23年的取消及推迟发行量分别是393.10亿元和90.59亿元,占比9.45%和9.43%。


        城投债取消发行高占比情况,结合上在22年整个信用债发行规模中近四成的比重,这也似乎显示城投近期受到的冲击相对更大,融资发行受影响较为明显。


        单看城投取消发行的区域所在,多集中在江苏省、山东省及四川省等热门关注省份;其中江苏省2022年取消发行量达521.65亿元,占比2022年城投主体整体取消发行的23.24%。


        取消发行后续跟踪


        据不完全统计,2022年至今共录得327家主体涉及取消发行,且取消券后续无再发情况,累计真实取消/推迟发行2,704.78亿元。


        单看评级分布情况,AAA评级主体取消发行量高达1,346.50亿元,占比统计期间取消发行累计总量的49.78%;


        结合行业分布情况,其中AAA城投占比为28.1%;其次,AA(包含AA和AA+)取消发行累计量1,350.28亿元,占比与AAA级基本持平,为统计期间取消发行累计总量的49.92%,其中AA城投主体为主要取消发行方,占比AA取消发行量的82.2%,结合上AA级城投的近三成的存量占比情况,基本显示出低评级城投在近期市场波动中受到的冲击更大。


        单看城投取消情况,统计期间391家城投主体涉及取消或推迟发行,其中后续取消券无再发共217家,累计真实取消/推迟发行1,490.13亿元,其中以AA城投单次取消为主(包括AA及AA+),占比该系列的50.57%。


        从取消发行的频次来看,71.48%的城投债在统计期间仅单次取消发行,且以AA城投主体取消为主;但该系列主体平均利差之间分化明显,单看AA城投主体其主体平均利差介于【52,973】bps区间。


        其他部分主体利差较高的城投在取消发行后,仍有较宽裕的注册额度,且能成功发行其他类型票据。


        例如西宁城市投资管理,在22年6月取消发行一笔超短融“22西宁城投SCP001”,该券并无后续再发动作。


        但随后成功发行多笔公、私募债及超短融,合计融资29.5亿元;注册额度方面,公司仍有“中市协注[2021]CP115号”和“中市协注[2022]MTN1114号”尚未使用,剩余额度合计13亿元。


        但亦有部分主体,例如聊城市兴业控股集团,于2022年12月取消发行一笔中期票据后再无债券融资进展。


        此外,另有江西天然气集团、郑州地铁集团等4家城投主体在尝试发行取消后,其境内并无存续票据;但当前还持有有效注册额度,可供使用。


        单月来看,城投主体真实累计取消量基本介于【5,590】亿元区间,在2022年11月受整体融资环境影响,飙升至350.25亿美元;随后12月维持高位,单月累计取消589.05亿元;


        受整体行情调控,城投主体净融资在2022年11月起进入寒冬;虽2023年1月,受12月“取消潮”影响,当月净融资达到低点-1,417.24亿元。


        随着本轮“取消潮”效应减弱,城投主体发行回暖,2月到期压力减少,净融资逐渐回暖。


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