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多数省份前三季度 整体投资保持平稳
时间：2019-11-06

地方经济三季报日前已全部出炉。从数据来看，前三季度，多数省份固定资产投资同比增速均好于全国，民间投资表现活跃，成为带动整体投资平稳运行的主力。

多数省份整体投资增速快于全国

据上证报记者统计，在全国31个省(区、市)中，有17个省(区、市)前三季度固定资产投资同比增速好于同期全国5.4%的平均水平。

其中，天津、广东、湖北、湖南、浙江固定资产投资增速均超过10%。天津以15.4%的增速领跑全国，而广东整体投资增速则创下今年以来新高。

从上述地区统计部门分析来看，民间投资对整体投资拉动作用明显，这些省份民间投资普遍保持两位数增长。比如，湖南前三季度民间投资增速接近20%，延续了去年以来的向好态势。

江西、云南、四川、广西、安徽、河南等省份前三季度固定资产投资同比增速均在8%以上，山西、新疆、贵州、重庆、甘肃等地固定资产投资增速也快于全国平均水平。整体投资表现平稳的省份多集中在中西部地区。

摩根士丹利华鑫证券首席经济学家章俊对此分析称：“目前基建补短板作为稳增长的抓手，但政策重心更多是在中西部地区，因此相关省份在基建投资方面受益更为显著。同时在当下因城施策的房地产调控政策下，中西部地区的房地产市场依旧相对平稳。最近几个月房价维持环比上涨的城市大部分都是在中西部城市，所以这些省份房地产相关投资和消费较为平稳。”

地方加速“六稳”重大项目建设

为冲刺四季度经济，多地加快固定资产投资，集中上马一批“六稳”重大项目。

10月28日，安徽省贯彻落实“六稳”重大项目10月份集中开工动员会举行。当天195个项目集中开工，总投资1050.33亿元。

动员会强调，要认真落实中央“六稳”要求，把抓冲刺、抗压力、稳增长、保目标作为重中之重，突出补短板、强弱项、调结构，进一步扩大有效投入，发挥投资关键支撑作用，促进安徽经济持续健康发展。

山东前三季度固定资产投资同比下滑9.6%。为稳投资，该省已开始冲刺。10月份以来，山东各地掀起了重大项目集中开工潮，济南、青岛等城市集中开工项目投资规模都在百亿元级别。日前山东省发展改革委公开推介了130个新旧动能转换项目，总投资约7300亿元。

记者梳理各地公开信息发现，交通基建项目在新开工项目中“挑大梁”。最近一周内，浙江、甘肃等地相继开工一批重大铁路和公路项目，包括金甬铁路、静宁至天水高速公路等，涉及总投资规模达数百亿元。

新时代证券首席经济学家潘向东表示，随着逆周期政策力度加大，未来基建投资增速可能继续加速回升，从而带动固定资产投资增速或略有回升。


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