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政信信托和定融为什么会这么安全?
时间:2020-05-09

1.地方政府融资平台一般是地方国资委控股,道德风险极低,项目的真实性可以保障。

 

2.作为地方国资委控股平台,政府融资平台实力较为雄厚,还款能力较强。

 

3.政府融资平台具备政府信用,而地方政府基本不可能破产,这也是政信信仰的终极支撑。现在有一些言论:地方债务高就代表城投债不可靠、信托产品违约了就代表去刚兑、出了存款保险制度就代表银行会破产等等。但一切结论要以事实为依据,才能客观,才能令人信服。作为一个投资人,如果不能学会独立思考,可以说什么都投不了。投资,始终是在风险和收益间取得平衡。如果追求无风险收益率,最好的选择依旧只有智能存款和银行理财,收益不超过6%(与GDP增速大致持平)

 

4.政信定融的风险高不高,用数据说话。根据银保监会数据统计,截至20186,全国地方政府融资平台名单有11736家。截至2018年末,全国地方政府债务余额已达18.39万亿元。但是,据报道,201811月标普全球评级发布报告称,中国地方政府的隐性债务规模可高达30-40万亿人民币(约5.78万亿美元)。根据发行渠道的不同,政信项目分为政府债、城投债、政信信托、政信定融等。

 

政府债和城投债属于地方政府的显性债务,即在18.39万亿元里。根据进元财富研究数据,政府隐性债务大致分为城投信贷和城投非标。

 

政信信托、政信定融等属于城投非标,规模约6万亿。注:政府债、城投债属于标准资产,政信信托和政信定融等属于非标资产。严格意义上,在资产管理行业,资金晚到一天都算是违约。目前政府债并无违约。城投债仅有一例违约,属于技术性违约。违约城投债为“17兵团六师SCP001”,该笔债813日到期,而资金是15日到主承销商账上,资金(到付)晚了两天。目前政信项目违约主要集中在信托、资管计划、私募等,因2018年信用环境紧缩才引发市场关注。但相比11736家地方融资平台、6万亿的城投非标规模,违约概率仍然极低。以政信信托为例,截至2019年二季度末,政信信托管理规模2.89万亿元。但根据公开信息不完全统计,政信信托违约项目仅19个。

 

则政信信托的违约率为19*1/23900=0.08%0.08%的政信项目违约率可能不够准确,但可以作为参考。政府融资平台的信用风险依然可控,在各行业中也不属于违约比例较高的类别。相比P2P,政信项目的整体风险较低有事实依据支撑。

 

当然,选择政信项目,即便违约率较低,但投资也要了解它们为什么会违约。参考政信定融,违约政信项目地区以云南、贵州、内蒙古为主,进元财富就会建议投资者不投以上地区的政信项目就可以避开大部分坑。


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