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城投债策略：短期投资乐观，长期风险未除
时间：2020-11-24

城投债短期乐观，理由有四点：1）首先，短期违约可能性不大，宽松的政策面是城投维持正常融资的有力支撑。2）隐性债务化解推进利好城投。我们认为湖南、湖北、江苏、浙江等债务负担较重但经济、财政发展尚可的地区，选择地级市城投进行试点的可能性比较大。3）专项债发行利好城投。考虑到各地专项债新增额度以及限额与余额之间的空间，我们认为广东、江苏、浙江通过专项债化解隐性债务风险的能力较强，山东、安徽、河北、四川、河南等地也有较多的新增额度和限额余额空间，而湖南、黑龙江、天津、青海、宁夏地区空间有限。4）地产融资收紧，利好政信资产。长期以来房地产与政信类资产都是高收益-低风险资产的代表，房地产融资收紧后，金融机构对政信资产的热情替代性的提高了。

长期风险仍未除，中短久期品种为主。近期市场关注度比较高的隐性债务置换实质上是隐性债务的转移而非化解，仅能作为以时间换空间的一种方式，最终还是要考验各债务主体的偿付能力，建议以3年期及以下的中短久期品种为主。此外，严控增量的原则没有变，老债稀缺性提升，目前新老城投债估值差处于较低水平，未来随着隐性债务化解上的处置差异，老城投债的稀缺性还会再次显现。

地方政府隐性债务风险一直是悬在城投公司头上的达摩克利斯之剑， 自去年各地摸底隐性债务规模后，去年10月21世纪经济报道称《中共中央国务院关于防范化解地方政府隐性债务风险的意见》（中发〔2018〕27号，简称27号文）已印发，今年6月21世纪经济报道再称《关于防范化解融资平台公司到期存量地方政府隐性债务风险的意见》下发，但这两份文件均未对外公布。

目前阶段而言，城投债券仍然是不可多得的优质理财产品，进元财富也注意到越来越多的信托项目所投标的为城投平台私募债券；长期来讲，未来5年之间部分地区债务集中到期同样会对城投公司兑付能力构成一定影响。投资人通过我司项目债务分析判断项目存续期间内所投公司偿债情况，对所投项目如期兑付能提供不小帮助。

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