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城投平台有息负债的短期化和债券化
时间：2020-08-26

最近发现越来越多城投的有息债务呈现非常明显的两个特征：一是短期化，二是债券化。

短期化是指，在整个有息债务中，短期债务的占比越来越高。目前来看，可能有几方面的原因：

一是上一轮债务扩张（15-16年）时期，一些长期债务逐步到期，如大量的交易所3+2债券逐步迎来行权回售期，而在17-18年金融去杠杆时期，城投及时补充长期限债务的难度提升；

二是过去两年的政府性债务置换，一些被纳入到一类债务的期限较长的银行贷款、非标和债券等先后被置换完毕，而没有置换的逐步进入偿付期，以及考虑一些非标到期难以续借；

三是随着隐性债务整顿、城投再融资政策收紧，部分资质较弱的城投，难以发行期限较长债券，以及考虑银行间融资条件宽松，一些城投接而选择期限较短的SCP、CP等。

债券化是指，在整个有息债务中，债券所占的比重越来越高，特别是不少城投的长期有息债务中，存量债券规模和所占比重逐年攀升，甚至出现某个城投长期债务全部是债券的情况。

可能原因跟债务的短期化有一定重叠：前期城投上报的一类债务大多是银行贷款和非标， 这两年随着一类债务逐步置换完毕，债券存量越来越高；而监管对于银行和非标进入投融资平台的控制越来越强，部分城投不得不续发交易所或者银行间更高票息的债券借新还旧；但由于债务负担重和市场原因难以发出长债，只能被动发行CP或者SCP滚动，甚至找结构化的做交易所短期限私募债。

有息债务的短期化一定程度上加重了城投的流动性风险，毕竟频繁到期的各类债务，需要更加精确的流动性管理和资金调拨能力。而有息债务的债券化，无论是被动还是主动原因，都表明城投公司对债券市场的依赖提升。

进元财富认为，随着2020年及2021年新一轮的城投平台有息负债到期高峰来临，越来越多的城投平台存量债务将不得不通过各类途径进行置换，债务短期化、债券化将是未来平台发展的趋势，但同时区域内主要平台与次要平台之间会出现不同程度的分化，投资者尤其需要警惕中小平台偿债压力扩大的风险。

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