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融资环境持续回暖,4月新发城投债7000多亿,票面利率逐步回落
城投债 时间:2023-05-11


       4月新发行城投债7260亿元,城投实现净融资5737亿元。尽管较3月的峰值有所下降,但2023年以来城投债券融资环境整体回暖。新发城投债的票面利率回落,一二级倒挂现象有所改善,城投债取消发行情况明显减少。


       据企业预警通,4月城投共发行债券7260.12亿元,偿还5736.87亿元,净融资5736.87亿元。而3月城投发行债券9394.81亿元,净融资6534.68亿元。4月城投债券的发行额和净融资额均较3月的高峰有所下降。2023年1-4 月,城投债发行规模22341.77亿元,同比增长15.33%,净融资规模6674.10亿元,同比下降9.79%。


       分评级来看,AA+的城投是发债主力。根据中泰固收的数据,4月AAA、AA+和 AA 城投债发行规模分别为1689.71亿元、2713.97亿元和1505.61 亿元;净融资规模分别为208.69 亿元、834.28亿元和286.39亿元。分期限来看,3年以上的城投债呈净偿还。4月1年及以内、1-3年、3-5年和5年以上城投债发行规模分别为1582.69亿元、2600.39亿元、1478.34亿元和325.70亿元;净融资规模分别为288.87亿元、1199.48亿元、-82.70亿元和-79.95 亿元。


       区域方面,分省份看,浙江、湖北、河南、安徽和山东净融资规模较大。4月浙江、湖北、河南、安徽和山东净融资规模分别为 272.45 亿元、169.90亿元、156.26亿元、122.68 亿元和114.85 亿元;甘肃、贵州、陕西等净偿还规模较大。分地级市来看,青岛市、长沙市、郑州市、无锡市、泰州市等净融资规模较大,分别为85.20亿元、80.94亿元、57.74亿元、50.64亿元、49.28亿元;苏州市、南京市等净偿还规模较大。


       发行利率方面,除1年以内和1-3年AAA级、5 年以上城投债AA级以外,其余城投债加权发行利率均下行。


       华福固收进一步梳理了2023年来城投债发行的特点。首先是城投债发行的票面利率有所回落,但依然未恢复到2022年10月前的水平。受“理财赎回潮”冲击债市的影响,自2022年11月城投债发行票面持续上行,随着债市的震荡基本告一段落,今年1月新发城投债加权平均票面利率在达到峰值4.54%后开始下行, 2月、3月回落至4.22%和4.35%,相较峰值下行,但相比2022年10月的前期低点仍有近90bps左右的差距。


       其次,一二级倒挂现象有所改善,各省间分化仍较大。由于去年底债市集中回调,债券发行难度加大,导致城投债的一二级倒挂利差明显上行,最高点在2023年1月,城投债的一二级倒挂利差均值为88bps,随后2月和3月,一二级倒挂现象明显改善,较高点分别下滑了31bps和18bps。分省份来看,2023年Q1城投债一二级倒挂现象主要集中在贵州、青海、宁夏、陕西、广西、天津、河北等省,平均倒挂利差超150bps;而上海、福建、黑龙江、浙江、海南、广东、安徽等省,倒挂利差较低,此类区域内城投债发行市场化程度较高。


       最后,2023年一季度城投债取消发行规模较去年四季度明显下降,但较2022年Q1仍处于较高位置。2022年四季度债市震荡,信用债市场出现了取消发行潮,2022年11月和12月分别有322.1、658.6亿元的城投债出现取消发行,进入2023年城投债取消发行情况明显减少,1月至3月分别有110.93亿元、58.81亿元和142.58亿元的债券取消发行,但较2022年一季度,取消发行规模依然处于较高位置。


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