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10月多项宏观指标料改善 经济或现企稳迹象
时间：2019-11-14

10月主要宏观经济指标将于本周四出炉。机构普遍预测，随着促消费政策密集出台，10月份消费或继续呈现改善趋势，而基建投资增速继续回升则将促进固定资产投资平稳运行，经济或出现企稳迹象。

“去年10月消费增速明显下降，低基数有助于今年同期涨幅扩大。消费价格持续上升，也对名义消费增速起到提升作用。”交行首席研究员唐建伟在接受上证报记者采访时表示，预计10月份消费同比增长8%，增速较9月份的7.8%继续回升。

申万宏源证券宏观团队的预测数据更为乐观。其分析认为，随着汽车销售的扰动因素显著弱化，前期个税减税、增值结构性减税对消费仍有持续促进，预计10月份消费增速或升至8.3%。

今年以来，消费对经济发展的“压舱石”和“稳定器”作用持续增强。前三季度最终消费支出对经济增长的贡献率达60.5%，比上半年提高0.4个百分点。

国家统计局贸易外经司司长蔺涛指出，在消费环境持续改善、减税降费及个人所得税抵扣政策落实以及促消费政策逐步显效等多因素带动下，居民消费需求将进一步释放，新业态新模式持续较快发展，消费市场总体上有望继续保持平稳增长。

下半年以来，国家持续加大逆周期调节力度，相关政策效应在投资数据上已有反映。8、9月份基建投资增速持续回升，多数机构均表示，10月份基建投资将延续回升态势。

据统计局数据，前三季度基建投资同比增长4.5%，比二季度加快0.4个百分点，呈低位反弹态势。

唐建伟表示，近期建筑业景气度回升、地方债发行速度加快、专项债作为资本金的效果逐渐体现，未来基建投资增速有望回升。预计10月份固定资产投资累计增长5.4%，基本与上个月持平。

9月4日召开的国常会确定了加快地方政府专项债券发行使用的措施。据了解，目前各地正陆续上报项目，经国家发展改革委审批后，即可进入发债准备阶段。

在摩根士丹利华鑫证券首席经济学家章俊看来，未来专项债撬动社会资金、拉动有效投资的作用有望进一步发挥，基建投资对经济的托底效应逐渐增强。四季度将是一个较好的政策观察窗口，在观察前期政策效果的同时，适当调整价格为市场融资和后期地方债的发行创造合理充裕的流动性环境将是政策关注点。

不过，制造业投资持续放缓的态势应引起注意。统计局数据显示，前三季度，制造业投资同比增长仅有2.5%，预计四季度制造业投资仍将处于较低水平。

招商证券首席宏观分析师谢亚轩表示，预计逆周期调节和减税等政策的效果将有所体现，10月份经济数据出现企稳迹象。展望11月份，预计工业与投资增速相对稳定，消费增速有所回升，PPI触底回升。


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